John Wright’s Weblog

Braves Check: Is Anybody Still Watching? Edition

Floundering in fourth place isn’t much fun as a fan, but I suppose I could look on the bright side of the Braves’ season and think of it as an opportunity for new and different in-season analysis.  This is the first time in 18 years that the Braves have actually had the chance to evaluate talent and build for long-term scenarios before the end of a season.

So, the battle I face when I turn on the TV at night is…do I watch a team with no hope for 2008, or do I try to accomplish something else.  Lately all I’ve been “accomplishing” is fantasy football preparation and advancement of my NCAA Football 09 dynasty.  That, combined with a fairly entertaining Summer Olympics helped me to pretty much check out on baseball.

Fortunately for me, the Braves have also checked out.  Even Mark Kotsay is gone, leaving the (major league) outfield talent level pretty close to absolute zero.  Jair Jurrjens and most of the bullpen (at least the guys who have been around all year) are visibly tiring.  Glavine, Smoltz, and Hudson have all been shut down, and even though Mike Hampton has amazingly not spontaneously combusted, he hasn’t exactly been a good pitcher.  The Braves just haven’t given fans much to root for.

I don’t have a stat update ready today, but instead I’ll list five things to watch or remember if you, like me, are looking for ways to be a Braves optimist over the next month or so:

1. Look to the future in the minor leagues.  Their seasons are almost over, but the farm system looks solid in quite a few different areas.  The Braves have a fast-rising top prospect in Jason Heyward and lots of other guys with potential.  The outfield alone has Heyward, Cody Johnson, Gorkys Hernandez, Brandon Jones, and Jordan Schafer.  Hopefully some of them will push Jeff Francoeur and company in ‘09 and beyond.  The infield has Brandon Hicks, Kala Ka’aihue, and Brent Lillibridge among others.  Pitchers to watch include Tommy Hanson, Cole Rohrbough, and a host of others.
2. Watch Chipper while he’s healthy.  It’s been pretty amazing to watch Chipper Jones improve as a veteran player.  He should be mentioned in the same breath as Albert Pujols among the NL’s top hitters, and he’s 36 years old.
3. Remember that the current starting rotation is pretty young, even though they’re also pretty bad right now.  Not all of the Braves’ aces of the 1990s started their careers on top of the league, so there’s plenty of growing room for Jurrjens, Reyes, and Morton.  Campillo is a bit more of a wild card (and he’s also not young), but it’s possible that the Braves have tapped into a good player with him as well.
4. The Yankees finally appear to be headed to their first early offseason since the strike in 1994, which means they’ll fall short of the Braves’ postseason mark of consistency.  Few non-Braves-related baseball stories give me more pleasure than a report of a Yankee loss, which is almost certainly a mental disorder I have that stems from the 1996 postseason.  I loved the 2001 World Series almost as much as I would have if the Braves had won, if that says anything about me.
5. Watch football.  That should keep your mind off things until Spring Training 2009.

Posted in Braves | No Comments »

Schedule for the week of August 25, 2008

Monday: Melissa’s birthday, no posts
Tuesday night: 2008 fantasy football draft #1 (possible later post)
Tuesday Wednesday: Braves Check: Is Anybody Still Watching? Edition (I didn’t think about the fact that my draft Tuesday night would get in the way of posting.  I’ll try to have this up Wednesday and not go another week without posting some actual content.)
Later in the week: Thoughts on Joe Biden, the Democratic Convention, and the Democratic ticket overall
Saturday: 2008 fantasy football draft #2

Today is my wife’s birthday, and part of her present is that I won’t spend tonight working on a blog post or my upcoming fantasy football drafts.  I would tell her she’s an old fogey today, but I’m the one who’s hair is already starting to gray, so she won’t be hearing that from me.  Not after this post, at least.

This will also be a busy week at work, and I’ll be away from the computer a lot.  This time of year, I’m out in the plant more often than not, and we also have 1-2 other big things going on.  I may forgo posting about my fantasy team under the “no one else cares” rule, but there’s a strong chance that I may be too excited not to post.

Tuesday night’s draft is the inaugural draft of a new keeper league I’ve joined with 10 guys who live in my neighborhood, and it’s actually a pretty interesting format: a 5-round auction with a serpentine draft for the remaining 18 rounds.  The keeper rules are not restrictive at all; you get 9 keepers each year, and there are basically no other rules, so it’s a fairly long-term focus.  My other league’s rules are such that 99% of players are not worth keeping for more than two years, so it’s more of a short-term focus.

Hopefully I can also arrange some thoughts this week about the Democratic ticket, since I hear there’s some sort of convention going on right now.  I haven’t been posting much about politics over the summer, but my perspective hasn’t changed much.

The rest of the week begins now.

Posted in Friends & Family, Government/Politics, Other | No Comments »

Braves Check: Dog Days Edition

There’s been plenty of action in Major League Baseball over the last few weeks, but aside from the Teixeira trade, the Braves haven’t really been part of it.  Football season is also around the corner, and even when the Braves are in contention, they get pushed to the back page of the local sports sections in favor of stories about the latest State of Alabama v. Fulmer spectacle or the most recently arrested Georgia Bulldog.  Of course there’s no way you’re seeing them on ESPN’s FavreCenter or AL East Tonight.  Thank goodness for baseball blogs.

Here are some stats from the last two weeks:

A few comments:

• Several players made their Braves’ debuts over the course of the last fortnight.  Clint Sammons was immediately a huge improvement over Corky Miller, but I get the feeling that he wouldn’t have come up were it not for McCann’s concussion (I guess because of the “playing everyday” factor).  His minor league record indicates that he won’t keep hitting .333/.368/.500.  Something more like his career minors line of .262/.334/.365 seems more appropriate, and that would be more than fine for a backup catcher.
• Casey Kotchman has started his Braves career somewhat poorly at .205/.308/.295, but he’ll hit better in the long run.
• Francisley Bueno is actually on the roster now, but he hasn’t been used yet.  Hopefully he’ll get in some games if only to reduce the mileage Bobby Cox has put on Blaine Boyer’s arm this year.
• Brian McCann has kept up his performance as the Braves’ best hitter when Chipper Jones can’t play.  He was already playing that part before the Teixeira trade, though: McCann has 40 points of OPS on Tex this year (when he was a Brave, at least).  Consider his fielding contribution at catcher vs. Teixeira at first base, and there was really no contest in the first place.
• The lineup hasn’t been pretty beyond those few outstanding players.  Martin Prado has been the team’s third-best hitter this year, albeit in a limited sample size of 97 PAs.  His slash line of .310/.381/.500 is amazing, especially since he hasn’t hit a ton of line drives (just 17.1%) and has just one homer.  The gap power may be somewhat real, but he seems like more of a .280 hitter in the long run.  His current role on the team is also quite redundant, although he wouldn’t be the guy to get rid of.  Why bother having him, Infante, and Ruben Gotay on the roster all at the same time?
• Jeff Francoeur keeps providing more of the same thing we’re used to seeing from him: if nothing else, he’s prolific at making outs.  He’s made 352 so far this year if you include 13 double plays.  The Braves have hitched their wagon to him in every form except for his contract, and he’s probably not going anywhere soon.  As Jay said in the comments of my last post, Ben Grieve is a very good career comparison for Jeff, only Grieve actually had plate discipline, and by “good,” I mean “tragic.”
• Turning now to the players entrusted with the task of preventing runs, the Braves lost one of the best to Tommy John surgery when they lost Tim Hudson.  Only the miraculous season of Jorge Campillo comes close to Hudson’s 2008, and that will likely continue to be the case.  Campillo has actually passed Hudson in WPA/LI this season with +2.409 with three “quality starts” in three chances in the last two weeks.
• The rest of the rotation was touched up at least to some extent over that same time period, although Charlie Morton has been very strong in his last two outings, both quality starts.  Jair Jurrjens was a bit rocky, and Mike Hampton has understandably been somewhat erratic.  Chuck James has been awful after posting a 2.48 ERA in 13 AAA starts.
• The bullpen has enjoyed more magic from Buddy Carlyle, who posted 6 1/3 shutout innings in two weeks’ work.  He’s sitting on a 3.69 ERA now overall.  Vladimir Nunez and Julian Tavarez have been surprisingly good of late, while Will Ohman and Mike Gonzalez have been less-surprisingly good.
• The other side of the bullpen shows that Blaine Boyer has worn down (6 runs in 4 2/3 innings since my last update), and Royce Ring completely imploded before being DFA’d.

The Braves are in an interesting position now for the middle of August.  They will bide their time until the September roster expansion gives them some real roster freedom.  Hopefully they will allow Clint Sammons to spell Brian McCann some down the stretch, but all the other young players may have to wait.  In a few weeks, they can call up guys like Brandon Jones and Brent Lillibridge (again) to see what they want to do in 2009 and beyond.

Reports are indicating that the Braves may pursue a frontline starter for 2009, but it’s been a while since the Braves spent big money to acquire a free agent pitcher.  Trades are obviously another story (see: Mike Hampton).  The problem is that a big name starting pitcher might not be enough to make the Braves a contender in 2009, since they were barely one with Hudson in the fold.  The rest of the pitching staff is a collection of question marks.

Is Jurrjens’ 2008 his new established level of performance, or will he regress in ‘09 at all?  Same for Jorge Campillo.  Will Jo-Jo Reyes and Charlie Morton show their command is consistent enough to entrust either of them with a rotation spot?  Is Chuck James ever going to be an effective major league pitcher again, or is he just organizational depth at this point?  Will the Braves, or anyone for that matter, sign Mike Hampton to an incentive-based one-year deal?  How much starting pitching depth is too much, and does any of it matter if you don’t have some proven guys at the top?  There are lots and lots of questions, and currently few answers as I see it.

They’ll get better results at the plate next year if only because they won’t be so unlucky, but I’m not really sure what the plan is at certain positions, especially in the outfield.  The Jeff Francoeur Predicament is a story by itself, but there are two other outfield slots to fill and seemingly no acceptable long-term options (Blanco has no power, Will Diaz hit again?, Kotsay is a free agent, Brandon Jones might not be ready).  Aside from Jones, the other minor leaguers seem too far away to help in 2009.

So, do the Braves punt 2009 and build for 2010 and beyond?  A lot more players are expendable if that is the case, and I might entertain that option if I were being held to the $80M or so budget of the previous few years.  I’m not sure how the Braves’ ownership group sees the team from a financial standpoint, so I can’t really speculate there.

Right now, I’m still getting my head around the idea that I’m talking this way in August.  When is football season, again?

Posted in Braves | 7 Comments »

Schedule for the week of August 11, 2008

Monday night: Braves stat update
Tuesday: Braves Check

Football season is creeping up around the corner, but I hope to finish out the baseball season with some good posts, even if the Braves are no longer in contention.  There are still some things to watch for, like Friday’s deadline for signing this year’s draft picks and the September roster expansion.

I don’t know if I’ll have anything the rest of the week.  I went kayaking this past weekend, but I don’t have any pictures or anything to share, since I couldn’t exactly take my camera down the river.  Unless something else comes up, that may be it for this week.

Posted in Other | 6 Comments »

Dave Matthews Band live in Memphis

I’ve seen a handful of really good concerts, but only a few times have I really been in the presence of musical greatness.  In terms of songwriting, I would put Switchfoot in that category, and Nickel Creek would make it both on both lyrics and instrumental proficiency.

Dave Matthews Band certainly would fit that billing, with Matthews a world-class songwriter and good vocalist (if a bit rough around the edges nowadays).  Carter Beauford has no match behind a drum set, and there are few bands that put together such great individual musicians as Stefan Lessard, Boyd Tinsley, LeRoi Moore, Rashawn Ross, and Tim Reynolds to make a sound that is both instantly accessible and rewarding upon repeated listening.  While I’m no music expert, I don’t think I’m sticking my neck out too much saying all of that.

This weekend, I finally got the chance to see one of DMB’s famed live shows, at Autozone Park in Memphis.  While the advent of YouTube and live DVDs had me knowing what to expect, I was still pretty much blown away.  Here’s what they played, if you’re curious:

Don’t Drink the Water *
Old Dirt Hill *
Eh Hee  *
Water/ Wine
Tripping Billies *
Gravedigger *+
The Song That Jane Likes *
Drive In Drive Out *
Burning Down The House *
#41 *
So Damn Lucky *
Crash Into Me *
Corn Bread *
Sledgehammer *
Where Are You Going
Smooth Rider *
Louisiana Bayou *
Two Step

Encore:
Sister ~
Anyone Seen The Bridge *
Too Much Intro *
Ants Marching *

Special Guests:
Send good thoughts for LeRoi
* Jeff Coffin
+ Willie Nelson
~ No Horns, Dave on piano

Longtime keyboard playing-live fixture Butch Taylor left the band earlier this year, and saxophonist LeRoi Moore was in an ATV accident that has kept him off the road for the last month or so; thus, the band had Jeff Coffin from Bela Fleck and the Flecktones to replace Moore, and DMB friend Tim Reynolds joined in as part of the live act.  I think they may consider trumpet player Rashawn Ross a part of the main band at this point, and he was there too.

Willie Nelson was the show’s opener, and he was kind of entertaining on his own (”On The Road Again” was one of my dad’s favorites for his cassette mixtapes), but his is not really my style of music.  Nelson came back out to sing on “Gravedigger,” which was outstanding.

“Don’t Drink The Water” is my favorite pick to open a DMB set, so I was especially pleased with that choice to lead off.  One of the great things about DMB’s live show is the screen behind the set, a transparent kind of screen that shows the same kind of thing you might usually see if they had a big screen on each side of the set.  With the screen behind them, though, it’s easy to focus on the stage itself and not lose track of what’s going on while watching the screen behind them.  For songs like “Don’t Drink the Water,” they showed some footage from the song’s original music video.  It’s a pretty dark song, but I love it.

From there, the band went into a set of newer material, with “Eh Hee” and the Water/Wine jam not having been released on a full album yet (EDIT: So the Water/Wine jam isn’t new, just new to me.  That DMB Almanac site is awesome, by the way).  Dave preceded “Old Dirt Hill” by saying it wasn’t about him, although the vivid imagery of the song makes you think it certainly could have been (I can see him “smoking under the railroad bridge,” for sure).

“Tripping Billies,” like most of their upbeat songs, was great live.  With “Gravedigger” in between, that was part of a section including some older songs like “The Song That Jane Likes.”  “Burning Down The House” was an entertaining cover of the Talking Heads’ original, with Rashawn singing lead.  #41 gave just about everyone a chance to take a solo, and I believe it’s been a concert staple for quite a while.  “Crash Into Me” of course got everyone involved, and I love that he threw in his occasional extra line: “I will be your Dixie chicken if you’ll be my Tennessee lamb, and we will walk together down in Dixie land…”  Certainly fitting for a concert in Memphis.

“Cornbread” is a great new song for a jam, and everyone again got the chance to shine.  I like that one rhythmically, and it will be interesting to see what happens if they record that one in the studio.  They played another cover after that one, Peter Gabriel’s “Sledgehammer,” which Dave simply introduced as a “love song.” Indeed.

The choice of “Where Are You Going?” was a bit odd for a live set, but it’s still a pretty good song.  “Smooth Rider” was decent live, but of course there were older songs I knew I wasn’t going to hear because they were playing songs like that one.  “What Would You Say?” and “Satellite” make only occasional appearances in their sets these days, and both would be absent from this one.

Even without Robert Randolph, “Louisiana Bayou” is a great live song.  Boyd took that one over, and I love the conclusion they do when they play it live.  “Two Step” is kind of a curious choice for a set closer unless you’ve seen what they can do with it live.  It’s a fairly subdued song on Crash, but it gives the band plenty of room to move with the changes and take solos.  Reynolds was spectacular on guitar here; I hadn’t been familiar with him, aside from knowing he’d recorded an album with Dave before, but watching him live was pretty special.

I don’t know if DMB plans their encores, but they have a tendency to play a song like “Sister,” a softer original from Dave, and then a higher-powered song like “Ants Marching,” which is my favorite DMB song.  They teased us by playing their usual live intro to “Too Much,” even going so far as to play the full opening line of the song before starting into the “Ants Marching” drum intro.  I wasn’t particularly disappointed, since I got to see several more of my favorites than I normally would have expected.

All in all, it was about as satisfying as I can imagine a live concert being.  Regardless of your thoughts on DMB, I think it’s pretty easy to enjoy a band that obviously enjoys playing music.  Carter Beauford’s endlessly beaming smile is the most apparent example, but all of the guys seem to have a great time, even on a hot, sticky August night in Memphis.  They certainly don’t need to play for a paycheck anymore, but their live experience is good enough that they will be able to earn their keep by playing for many years to come.

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